So with the international break over, barring any injuries, I will assume the formations used in the previous GW used by the respective teams to predict who could potentially put up a Quality Game, being scoring more than 6 points. I will also try and highlight key battles in case you are "punting" on a particular side to win. Note that this blog is solely based on my own opinion, and there is a high chance my initial predictions will turn out really wrong. Hence, I will also do a "post mortem" of my predictions and highlight key mistakes/correct decisions that I have made, as well as suggestions on who will do relatively well in the coming weeks.
Norwich v West Ham
Since conceding 5 against Swansea, Norwich have tightened up at the back with only allowing a goal from both QPR and Spurs. Unfortunately, not much can be said about Norwich at the moment, because their performances aren't bringing the points in. Your best bet in this side, if you back them getting anything out of West Ham at all, is the in form Robert Snodgrass. Expect him to at least test McCartney (or O'Brien if unfit) or even Matt Taylor's defensive capabilities, but really it all comes down to the duels between Reid/Collins and Jackson/Holt.
From West Ham's angle, their plan A seems to be working, and I don't see them changing that plan against a side like Norwich at all. Zonalmarking picked up on the age old philosophy of being the first to the second ball, and West Ham will certainly rely on Taylor, Vaz Te and Nolan to pick up the pieces from Cole's aerial duels against Norwich's centre halves. West Ham do have a wildcard though, which is the fact that if Norwich do push their central midfielders back to counter that move, Mohd. Diame would certainly exploit that space and he can do more than enough damage to the Canaries, as he usually does at Wigan.
Key Battles: Nolan/Vaz Te/Taylor vs Howson/Johnson, and Snodgrass/Pilkington vs Demel/McCartney/O'Brien. The winner of this battle will certainly control the amount of possession received. I could even foresee one of the 2 strikers dropping back to help out, relying on the other to feed of Snodgrass and Pilkington's counterattacks.
Prediction: Norwich have more than enough personnel to deal with West Ham's game plan. I am calling this game to be decided by the "moment of brilliance" from one of the Norwich wingers.
Key Fantasy Picks: For those banking on Norwich to win, Barnett/R.Martin is a very good option at the back, as well as the obvious candidates of Snodgrass/Pilkington. For those wanting WHU to steamroll them down, Nolan or Matt Taylor would be the safe picks, with Diame as the risky option.
Arsenal v Southampton
While I have never been a fan of the Gunner's defence, they are finally putting their money where their mouth is, and the attributing the new robustness in them to Steve Bould is certainly evident. However, against a rusty Stoke and Sunderland, and the eternally wasteful Liverpool, you can argue that the Gunners' defence have yet to be tested by a decent side. Arsenal are known for their possession game, but without the mobility of Jack Wilshere and the departed RVP and Alex Song, a lot of weight is put on Santi Carzola and Podolski's shoulders, which can potentially be exploited by the Saints. If anything, we should expect the midfield double pivot of Arteta/Ramsey to step up and create chances in midfield for Giroud, and expect the likes of Podolski and perhaps Walcott/Chamberlain to drift in center to avoid confrontation with Clyne/Fox, who are severely underrated at the moment.
Southampton boasts the likes of Ricky Lambert and his supporting cast, who aren't afraid to play the patient game and counterattack like they have done against United and City. With Lallana and Davis providing the speed, Schneiderlin and Lambert for providing the steel and Puncheon doping the running, they will punish teams who take them lightly. Since the Gunners' defence has yet to be breached, expect Southampton to test Arsenal on all fronts, and I can see the shaky Carl Jenkinson being severely tested.
Key Battles: Davis vs Jenkinson, Carzola/Arteta vs Schneiderlin/Ward-Prowse. The game will certainly be won in midfield, where the operation of Arteta and Ramsey will come under scrutiny. If all goes well, expect a possession/counterattack game which plays into the hands of both teams, and expect a good game. If Schneiderlin or possibly Lallana can dispossess either of them, expect Szczesny to be tested. How new boy Gaston Ramirez will fit into the equation will be incredibly intriguing.
Prediction: I sincerely hope that Nigel Adkins goes for broke by fielding Ramirez from the start alongside Lallana to press Arsenal high up the pitch, but I suspect this strategy would be introduced in the second half, or possibly not at all (there might just be a straight swap). I would not blame Adkins for taking the sensible approach though, and with the Gunners' "2 blankets of 4" defense, I can't see Southampton's attacking midfielders breaking the Arsenal ranks. Set pieces are key. Arsenal to win it, or a score draw with a goal conceded from Jenkinson's error/exploitation.
Key Fantasy Picks: Santi Carzola will be the difference in the midfield, as to whether he can link up with the midfield duo pivot. Hence, I have a feeling that he will be nullified this game, unless he doubles up against one of the Saints' fullbacks. I expect Lallana to deliver this game (for the risk takers there's always Ramirez) and anyone with Arsenal defence will certainly be biting their nails.
Villa v Swansea
Let's face it, Villa have underperformed in their 3 matches so far. For a team which boasts the attacking riches of Weimann, Darren Bent, Barry Banna, El Ahmadi, Charles N'Zogbia and Stephen Ireland, Aston Villa should be attacking and scoring a lot more. The good news is that they have every match from here to redeem themselves (just like Spurs), and frankly, the goals can come from pretty much anywhere at the moment. Against a depleted Swansea side with no Neil Taylor or Chico, expect their replacements to be tested by the Villa midfielders. I'm quite optimistic about Villa's chances actually, and i expect Darren Bent to score this game, but it's really a matter of whether they can keep their concentration at the back.
Swansea, like most teams in the division, have developed a plan A and have executed it really, really well. The difference in their approach compared to everyone else is that they have improved over the last transfer window, while teams like West Ham (I might eat my words next week the the addition of Carroll), Everton, Newcastle, Norwich, Stoke and Sunderland haven't. The obvious of this scenario is that when a team lives and dies by a single philosophy, injuries to key players will certainly hamper their playing style, and eventually affect results. Swansea have also been relying on opponents' mistakes to be doing so well, so any team that tightens up at the bank will certainly stop them. Enough. Such as Sunderland.
Key Battles: The obvious: Darren Bent v the entire Swans' backline. The key is who Bent goes mano o mano against, and who picks up the pieces of he does create something out of nothing. Weimann, Ireland and new boy El Ahmadi will determine the course of this match, if they can press the Swans down, they will win this game. I expect Paul Lambert to tell them so.
Prediction: Villa to win. 2-1 or 2-0. Expect Bent to get on the scoresheet, and a potential assist from one of the fullbacks. If you have either of them, you would have reason to be optimistic. Swansea will not go down without a fight though, and expect an entertaining game.
Key Fantasy Picks: Darren Bent. For Swansea, I have more faith in the wingers than Michu this game, I expect Villa's plethora of central midfielders to swamp Michu. For the risk takers, El Ahmadi or Wayne Routledge is a decent pick, given their prices.
Fulham v West Brom
This game is probably the most intriguing of the set of games this week. Not because of the quality of the new players in both teams, rather because both teams have been playing really good football. The difference is that West Brom have not made any errors. Yet. In Fulham, we will see in this game whether a midfield who has lost Dembele and Dempsey can be covered by the attacking talents of new signings Berbatov, Kacaniklic and Petric. They did play really well against Man United, but against West Ham, size beat them in the end and the rest of the team went to sleep with picking up the second ball.
With West Brom, they certainly have been living up to expectations, some might even argue that they're doing better. They have certainly improved as a squad, with McAuley and Ridgewell fine additions to the squad. Their 4 strikers up front also provide a decent mix of pace, strength and skill, and the first XI they roll out against Fulham will determine the flow of the game.
Key Battles: This is a classic game of midfield vs strikers. While we are expecting quality from Fulham to come from Petric, Duff, Kacaniklic and Bryan Ruiz, they will be quite isolated with the likes of Mulumbu, Morrison and Dorrans pressing them down and denying them possessions. So, the key players to watch this game will be two "link up" players in both sides: Mulumbu and Morrison for the Baggies, and Sidwell/Duff for Fulham.
Predictions: As much as I am a huge fan of Berbatov, my head says that Diarra and Sidwell will be outclassed by West Brom this time. Unless, Martin Jol does the unthinkable and play 1 striker. Plausible, but unlikely. Not in a home game. I have a feeling Jol will play 3 strikers in Berba, Petric and Ruiz. Brom to win it 2-1
Key Fantasy Picks: In a game with so much quality (on paper), the difference between sides are the players with energy. So while players that are most likely to get points are Long/Odemwingie, the differentials (in case of a 0-0 draw), will certain be Mulumbu or Kaca/Duff if you're feeling for Fulham.
Man Utd v Wigan
Analysing United games are always frustrating. Firstly, you don't know who will start. Secondly, Sir Alex has the tendency to play to nullify his opponents. The problem is that United's plans are frustratingly simple; You know what's coming, but it comes down to what you do about it. So, seeing that Wigan are going to roll out their 3 defenders at the back, United will probably test their wingbacks by playing Young, Nani and maybe even Welbeck. With Valencia on the opposite flank of course. The key to United's plan is doubling up as they have against Fulham before (last season they were very narrow when they played 4-3-3). United certainly will be aware that Wigan will outnumber them in the centre of the parkm and I can see Scholes and/or Giggs starting alongside Carrick.
Wigan, on the other hand, seem to become more offensive as seasons go by. With Shaun Maloney currently playing as a wing forward, Wigan are essentially playing 3-4-3. While their counterattacking possession game has been effective in the past, it is their wingers/wing forwards that have won them games in the past, and they will certainly use that to great effect again. The difference between this season (3-4-3) and last (3-5-2) is that they have much more width on the flanks compared to last season. Last season, with Victor Moses playing behind a long striker up front, they could use their pace well and only rely on one wingback to deliver crosses and shots (as Shaun Maloney did against United last season). However this time round, with Maloney and Kone flanking di Santo, there will be a significant amount of space in midfield for the likes of Scholes and Carrick, or even Cleverley to exploit.
Key Battles: Wigan will try to win this in the centre of the park, and United will take advantage of the quality of their wingers. Wigan do have a trick up their sleeve: Like how a 4-3-3 defends as a 4-5-1, Martinez's 3-4-3 will defend as a 3-6-1. How United will face up to that will be the intriguing task.
Prediction: Score Draw. Wigan seem to have this sorted out, and with Kone and di Santo in form, no one will stop them. But how many will RVP put past them? Will United try to outnumber Wigan in the centre instead?
Key Fantasy Players: Maloney if you're behind Wigan, RVP if you're with United. If you have both, well done.
QPR v Chelsea:
QPR have to keep it simple and keep two things in check. One, start a decent first XI. Two, play like Atletico Madrid. The basement bargain hunters actually have the quality to trouble Chelsea, and it really is a matter of not giving in to the "English way" of football, playing your most technical/speedy players and exploit Chelsea on the counter. Why not?
Simple. Chelsea are aware of the fact that QPR would probably have watched the Super Cup game, and they probably are ready for the "poor man's Atletico" awaiting them. Having said that, While Chelsea do have enough firepower to break QPR's resistance, Chelsea's lack of pace (as well as concentration at the back) will be tested by the likes of Cisse, Mackie, Park, Granero and SWP.
Key Battles: Granero v Mikel. To me, this goes to Granero. Any day. But whether Granero will show up is the real question: He's only had one game against Man City, and he's yet to have the chance to build his confidence and destroy teams. There's no doubt he will try though.
Prediction: Chelsea. All the way. QPR just don't look like they will win. Yet.
Key Fantasy Players: Granero for QPR. At a stretch, the enigmatic Cisse. Beyond the obvious candidates of Hazard and Torres, Bertrand might surprise many by hitting QPR hard on the left, where Fabio will be tested again and again.
Stoke v Man City:
This fixture last season, Peter Crouch did something we expect him to do, but not expect him to do. But that will not be the highlight of the match. This team's focus will be on the early form of Jonathan Walters, who has literally been under the radar and has been providing his fantasy owners with some decent returns. Beyond that, not much of the team can be considered Fantasy material, unless one of the centre backs start going on a scoring streak.
City on the other hand, have a midweek game to worry about, and will be looking to rest some of their key players. Who will face the drop? Stoke at the Britannia aren't exactly pushovers. IMHO, Mancini will do the sensible thing and fight fire with fire, with Yaya Toure being centre stage. He's hard to mark, technically sound, and he has an eye for goal as well. His goal in the same fixture last season also salvaged City a point, which begs the question: How much game time will he play?
Key Battles: Stoke's defensive midfield vs City's attacking midfield. It's Supply Line vs the Trench in this game, as City will look to outclass Stoke more than anything. It's really about which of City's midfield will shine.
Prediction: 0-0 or really high scoring. Stoke will give 100%. City will give 100%. It really will come down to whether things turn really cagey, or really open. That comes down to the attitude of the players.
Fantasy Picks: Silva, Yaya for the favourites, Nasri for the risktaker. How will Stoke score? The only way they can. Crouch for those who hate City to the guts, and you can certainly expect something out of the investment, especially with City being so suspect lately. Maybe even Matty Etherington to come up with something special.
Sunderland v Liverpool:
This fixture brings you back to the Beach Ball incident, and anyone that watched that game last year knew that it was BORING as hell. Sunderland this year are no different, really. With the addition of Carlos Cuellar, Sunderland do have someone decent at the back beyond Brown and O'Shea, but their frontmen will really have to step up, because if Liverpool figure out a way to shackle Fletcher, it's game over for Sunderland really.
The good news for Sunderland is that they are playing Liverpool. Playing a 4-3-3 with a fluid 3 man midfield not only exposes you to the risk of being outnumbered in midfield (where Sunderland have an orthodox 4), it also makes the formation narrow, unless your two wing forwards track back and defend. Borini and Sterling tracking back does sound a bit unusual, but I have seen Sterling back at times, so Liverpool's game plan is to outscore Sunderland SOMEHOW really.
Key Battles: Fletcher vs. whoever's assigned the role of marking him. I am quite sure that Sessegnon will be marked out as well, but him being out of form will certainly ease the pressure on the Liverpool center 3. For Liverpool, Rahim Sterling will be expected to deliver against Craig Gardner (most likely) although one hopes that he is not as wasteful as the rest of the Liverpool squad this game.
Prediction: Liverpool to sneak it. 1-0. In fact I would be so daring as to name Borini or Sterling as the scorers. The little voice inside me prays that I'm wrong and Pool get thrashed.
Fantasy Picks: With Cuellar in defence, scoring from aerials is quite unlikely. Sterling seems to have the most bang for your buck at the moment, but do keep an eye on McClean as he will be keen to remind people that he has been performing, but not delivering. Sessegnon would be for the risky players out there. All the best.
Reading v Tottenham:
Compared to the 2011/2012 season, this season's newcomers have been somewhat underwhelming. While Southampton have impressed by scoring against the big boys, West Ham and Reading have been lacking a gameplan to make up for their lack of quality. Based on the 2 games Reading have played so far, Pogrenbyak can finish quite well given the chances, and their wingers (McAnuff and McCleary) will be out to merit performances good enough to stay in the league.
Reading will take heart from Spurs' past performance, as they have not hit the heights many have expected them to. The acquisition of Sigurdsson, Dembele and Dempsey should be more than enough to compensate for the departures of VDV, Modric and Pienaar (yes I rate him quite highly). The good news for Spurs is that you can only go up from here, and really it comes down to how the Spurs players adapt to AVB's "ideal football", so to speak. Much of AVB's formation will be criticised (4-2-3-1 takes eons to be effective) but utilising all of Spurs resources is the way forward, and how AVB shifts his players around the centre of the park will be key to how Spurs will do.
Key Battles: Dembele/Sigurdsson vs. the entire Reading defence. While you can hardly classify them as roamers such as Hazard, their directness in terms of dribbling and/or shooting will cause Karacan and Leigertwood to be on their toes. This, however, might even force Sandro forward to do the damage. I can imagine Bale and Lennon being instructed to have a go at the Reading fullbacks too. Guthrie will be key for Reading to deliver.
Prediction: First thing I would like to note is that I have not watched Reading play a lot. I watched their game against Chelsea and it was filled with errors. However, McAnuff has been lively and they are quite dangerous on set pieces with Guthrie and Harte able to cause problems. Reading to cause Spurs more woes. 1-1
Fantasy Player Picks: I don't expect Pog to outwit or outmuscle the likes of Gallas and Vertonghen. I actually think the inverse might happen, and Vertonghen himself might be allowed room to score. Sandro, however will be the weak link and with Guthrie's cut price option at 4.4, many would probably have him already, but expect Guthrie to double up with one of the wingers to cause Sandro trouble.
Everton v Newcastle:
This battle looks to be the most testing for either managers, as both teams are starting to feel the effects of the international break. Everton will be without Darren Gibson for this game. However, it is how Moyes will rearrange his midfield "trio" of Gibson, Neville and Osman: Away from home, Neville plays at right back, with Osman and Gibson dictating things in midfield. At home, or at least against Man United, Hibbert played at right back with Gibson and Neville in midfield while Osman was pushed out wide right. Assuming Moyes does not have the tendency to change his starting formations, he should maintain Osman and Neville in central midfield, with Naismith keeping his spot on the right.
Newcastle, however, are worse hit as they are without Krul, Simpson, Tiote and even Collocini is a doubt. Whoever fills in at right back (or for the rest of defense for that matter), they will have to deal with the towering presense of Fellaini and be alert to the second ball as well in Osman's off the ball movement. A lot of Newcastle's game will rely on Cabaye and whoever his midfield partner is to stifle Everton's supply line to Fellaini, and for Cabaye to pull the strings from midfield. Hatem Ben Arfa and Jonas Gutierrez are also good enough to make a difference, but with Everton's defensive qualities, expect Newcastle's game to be won from the centre of the park.
Key Battles: Fellaini vs. Newcastle's defensive midfielder, Baines/Pienaar vs. Barfa/Newcastle's RB. If Everton were to take advantage of Newcastle's depleted lineup, it would be through the left, and won in the air. I can even see Pardew shifting Gutierrez to the left to help stifle Baines' threat, as Ben Arfa isn't exactly known for his defensive qualities. The battle for possession, however, will dictate this game as Newcastle's fate will rest on how well Cabaye can impose himself on the game.
Prediction: On paper, Everton will score. Fellaini or Jelavic will probably be the main cuplrits really, but off a corner more than open play, where Fellaini and co. can pick their opponents. I don't see Newcastle being able to cope with Everton's attacking qualities unless the forwards or Barfa come up with something special. 2-0 to the Toffees
Key Fantasy Picks: Fellaini will be the jewel in the crown here (at least based on my prediction), but if Newcastle were to take this game, expect Ben Arfa to drift in centre to take advantage of doubling up against Phil Neville.
No comments:
Post a Comment