Thursday, 4 October 2012

Gameweek 6: The Post Mortem. CHE v ARS, MNU v TOT


Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2,  Man United 2 Spurs 3

Summary:

Both sides decide to go with their the same plan A as last week, but Arsenal show more weakness and Chelsea capitalise, while Arsenal show more strength but don't capitalise.

Sir Alex Ferguson walked the tightrope and ultimately failed as his attempt to control the game left a glaring weakness exposed and Spurs duly scored from that weakness. By the time United plugged the holes and started playing properly, Spurs were over the hills and far away.

Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2

Lineups:

Arsenal line up the same XI as last started against Man City last week, with Vermaelen coming back  for Mertesacker. With their "double pivot-double pivot" system working quite effectively against Man City, Arsenal's initial lineup signalled that they were content with initiating attacks from deep and perhaps overload Chelsea's box with their midfielders to create or finish their chances.

Chelsea, meanwhile, also fielded the same first XI that started against Stoke. With Ramires expected to sit alongside Mikel in a 4-2-3-1, Chelsea will have a game plan in possession as well as punishing Arsenal on the counter, most likely through the brilliance of their creative front 3 of Mata, Oscar and Hazard.

  • Chelsea's transitions slow but get the job done, Arsenal's crossing poor until Gervinho's goal

The first half of this game shaped up like a game of chess, where both sides took their time to execute their strategies. Both sides were vying to play their possession game, but it was Chelsea who were off the mark first and were drawing fouls off Arsenal while in possession.

Arsenal's double pivot strategy were just as useful on the counter, however, as Arteta and Diaby were able to initiate attacks and advance themselves. Their style of play paid off as early as Diaby's early shot at Cech. When Diaby came off for Oxlade-Chamberlain (I'll coin him as Ox from here on), one would initially think that the Ox would shift wide while Ramsey stood alongside Arteta but it didn't happen and Ramsey remained relatively advanced.

Chelsea, meanwhile, utilised their possession well and finally made use of one of their set pieces when  Chelsea got their goal after Hazard was fouled on the halfway line. Stat to note: Arsenal had committed 6 fouls to Chelsea's 2 prior to that free kick.

The goal changed the game as Arsenal started to dominate possession, and while the "advanced double pivot" of Ramsey and Cazorla remained relatively central, Gibbs and Jenkinson marauded forward quite frequently to provide width, but their crossing quality was poor, and Chelsea dealt with it quite comfortably. Chelsea had their fair share of chances from counters and their best chance came almost immediately after their goal when Torres squandered a 1v1 against Mannone.

Arsenal's break came through a blessing in disguise when Oscar made a nasty tackle on Ramsey, forcing Ramsey to temporarily drop alongside Arteta in the double pivot. With Ox allowed to push wide on the wing, Arteta of the double pivot advanced to assist him and Jenkinson. Jenkinson doubled up with Ox against Cole(which he rarely did with Ramsey) and his run drew Cole away for Arteta to play an incisive pass to find Ox which created Gervinho's goal.

Note that with Hazard's relatively central positioning when defending that goal, Ox was allowed to cross for Gervinho without being blocked at all. Hazard and Cole were outnumbered 3v2 when Jenkinson advanced, which made sense since Chelsea didn't have any wingers defending that area.

  • Chelsea play their game and profit. Just as Arsenal gain the ascendancy, they kill it themselves. 

The second half began quite similar to the first, but with Vermaelen giving away another cheap foul, Chelsea capitalise and Arsenal react. Arsenal, though, recognised two things at the break and made slight tweaks at the break.

Arsenal kept Ramsey alongside Arteta in central midfield, encouraging Jenkinson to work with Ox on the right flank against Ashley Cole. RDM of Chelsea noted Cole's lack of cover on the right flank at half time, and in the second half, Hazard's work rate increased drastically to assist Cole, which mitigated Ox and Jenkinson's threat.

Mata, on Chelsea's right, however, wasn't doing so well. While Arsenal's play was more lopsided towards their right flank in the first half due to Podolski usually being in the box, Arsenal now evenly distributed their play on both flanks. While Jenkinson and Gibbs used Arteta to create the 3v2, Gibbs and Podolski used Gervinho as he tends to push wide left to receive the ball. When Podolski doubled up with Gibbs against Ivanovic on Arsenal's left, they finally forced a decent save out of Petr Cech through Podolski's header.

The puzzling substitution came when Arsene Wenger decided to inject some pace into Arsenal's game by introducing Walcott and Giroud. While it was sensible to replace Ramsey, whose passing was becoming wayward, his replacement of Podolski pushed Gervinho to the left, leaving a front four of Giroud flanked by Walcott and Gervinho and Cazorla just behind them.

While this front line had more pace off the ball than in the first half, Chelsea had conceded initiative to Arsenal in terms of possession and were dropping deep, denying Gervinho and Walcott space to run into. Mikel's shadowing of Cazorla also limited his influence, and while on the ball, Arsenal couldn't do much as Chelsea backed off them and Arsenal were limited to set pieces and Gibbs' forays forward, which didn't yield much beyond Giroud's 1v1 in injury time, especially when RDM brought on Moses and Bertrand late on as defensive substitutions.

Fantasy Implications:

While Arsenal stuck to their guns and struggled tactically against Chelsea, you cannot deny that Gervinho is starting to gain some form and will probably be the lone forward in their next match. Santi Cazorla's talent is never in question, but against permanent defensive midfielders, he was limited to shots on the edge of the box through a sea of players, which doesn't look very good for his investors.

Chelsea, however, have started the same XI two games in a row now, and the telling signs will be in their next game against a leaky Norwich where we expect Hazard to finally come out of his shell where he bullies smaller oppositions. Torres' goal, to me at least is probably a false dawn and you'd probably get better value elsewhere, especially with several mid-price forwards' fixtures easing up in the coming few weeks. 

Man United 2 Tottenham 3

Lineups:

Tottenham's lineup was fairly predictable as they showed up at Old Trafford as predicted, but Moussa Dembele's positioning in the midfield would be key to their style of play. United's reaction, however, was slightly surprising, given their Champions League game in midweek: they tend to rest their more experienced players, such as Giggs, Carrick or Scholes in the weekend games prior to them, but all three started in midfield this game, with Kagawa, Nani and RVP ahead of them.

With United fielding a relatively "static" midfield, United will attempt to win the game through their quality of passing from the midfield. Scholes and Carrick will be expected to remain relatively central, but their transition from defense to attack will heavily depend on Kagawa and Giggs' off-the-ball movement to receive the ball. Alternatively, RVP does a good job as a lone forward to hold up play, and Nani also is comfortable receiving the ball wide and creating chances himself from there.

Spurs' lineup, however, will predictably have two styles of play, as they have shown in previous games. They can either go directly through the middle with Dembele and Defoe's running and Dempsey's passing backed up by Sandro and Vertonghen's tendency to move forward, or they could attack United through the wings with Gareth Bale and Lennon capable of beating their markers.

Tactical Notes:

  • United's starting lineup playing into Spurs' hands, and they capitalise ruthlessly

As highlighted in the lineups, with United's midfield being relatively "static", Giggs and Kagawa were always unlikely to help defend against Tottenham's midfield three of Sandro, Dembele and Dempsey. With United's central midfield sitting relatively deep, it was strange to see their back four and two midfielders so far apart from their front four. Spurs used the space immediately as Vertonghen, playing at left back, ventured forward  playing off Bale and suddenly, United were outnumbered in defence and Vertonghen scored completely unmarked.

With United starting to boss possession after that goal, Spurs kept the pressure relatively high up by keeping Dembele as an attacking midfielder: Spurs were still 4-1-4-1, as they attempted to keep the pressure on Scholes and Carrick, who were constantly forced to bring the ball forward and were dangerously exposed to counterattacks.

United's superb passing lasted another half an hour before Spurs' central midfielders punished United's lack of a mobile central midfielder. Dembele, winning the ball back from Van Persie, beat Scholes easily and fed Bale, who had no change from Rafael all afternoon and drifted off-the-ball into the centre of midfield as a result. Receiving the ball with no midfielder around to mark him, he only had Ferdinand to beat (credit to Defoe for pulling Evans wide) and Bale made no mistake with his right foot finish.

  • United force Spurs to permanently stay deep by bringing on Rooney, Spurs content with protecting a lead but not without punishing United again

While United's game plan was dire in the first half, Rooney's introduction for Giggs only augmented the initiative Spurs had given to them, which was a sensible move from Sir Alex Ferguson. A feature of United's game in the first half that I didn't mention was Nani's duel against Vertonghen. Scholes and Carrick's passing often fell to Nani, who was a threat to Vertonghen constantly and his display in the first half at least merited him to keep his place in the second half.

Rooney's assertiveness on the ball brought the players around him into play. Firstly, he doubled up with Nani on the right flank against Vertonghen and crossed to Nani for his goal, then drew Sandro out to allow Van Persie to square up against Dempsey instead, who beat him and played Kagawa in for his goal. Spurs, however, did retaliate and credit to Defoe again for playing Gareth Bale in for drawing both Ferdinand and Rafael out of position, and Dempsey duly got his goal from the rebound.

With Carrick and Scholes finally having an extra outlet to pass to in Rooney, Tottenham's midfield three had to press Rooney, Carrick and Scholes in midfield. With van Persie and Kagawa constantly dropping deep to receive the ball, the Spurs midfield were constantly outnumbered 4v3 and this constantly left Carrick free to dictate play, and RVP should have capitalised when he had a free header and also missed a 1v1 against Friedel. It was a bit strange to see AVB content with sitting deep by bringing on Tom Huddlestone in the final minutes, but United couldn't capitalise on their chances and Spurs held on. 

Fantasy Implications: 

This game clearly exposed United's starting XI in terms of their weakness to direct dribbling and I'm not quite sure what to take from this game. Rooney's effect on this game should be noted, but given United's hectic schedule coming up, his minutes on the pitch at the moment are still relatively uncertain, and I wouldn't touch United's squad for now as they have tricky games to Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal next. Spurs, however, are showing consistency in their lineup as well as their results, and with three beatable opponents in the next 4 gameweeks, expect the likes of Bale, Defoe or even Dembele and Dempsey to pick up more investors.

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